论外汇对社会经济走势的影响

M. Ershov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,世界金融市场发生了重大变化。始于2020年的2019冠状病毒病大流行加剧了市场波动,增加了未来发展的不确定性。与此同时,货币领域仍然是保持经济稳定最重要的领域之一,也是成功摆脱危机的关键。正如文章所指出的,在危机时期,新兴市场和发展中国家的本国货币波动性增加,并有贬值趋势。主要国家中央银行提高利率会破坏外汇市场的稳定,特别是在发展中国家。这篇文章展示了本国货币升值和贬值的利弊。货币贬值对各国的贫困和不平等产生了负面影响。本国货币波动性的增加对经济的发展产生了负面影响。与此同时,在俄罗斯,波动性也在增加,卢布也在贬值,确保卢布稳定的机会很大。在目前世界市场高度不确定、反俄制裁和加强内部经济基础的重要性的情况下,利用广泛的机制来确保货币领域的稳定尤为重要。此外,俄罗斯监管机构确实有这样的机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On Some Aspects of the Foreign Exchange Influence on Socio-Economic Tendencies
World’s financial markets have undergone significant changes in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2020 contributed to increased volatility in the markets and increased uncertainty about future development. At the same time, the currency sphere is still one of the most important for maintaining stability in the economy and is a successful exit from the crisis. As the article indicates, in times of crisis the national currencies of emerging markets and developing countries experience increased volatility and tendencies towards depreciation. Raising interest rates of the leading countries’s central banks can destabilize the situation in the foreign exchange markets, especially in developing countries. The article shows the advantages and disadvantages of the appreciation and depreciation of the national currency. Currency depreciation negatively impacts poverty and inequality across countries. The increased volatility of the national currency has a negative impact on the development of the economy. At the same time in Russia, where volatility has also increased and the ruble has depreciated, there are significant opportunities to ensure a stable ruble. In the current conditions of high uncertainty in world markets, anti-Russian sanctions and the importance of strengthening internal foundations of the economy, the use of a wide range of mechanisms to ensure the stability of the currency sphere is especially important. Moreover, Russian regulators do have such opportunities.
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