基于出口增加值的中国服务贸易发展方式转变研究

Ting-Cih Chen, Yu Xie, Qiang Sun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

发展服务贸易是实现中国对外贸易发展方式转变的重要途径。然而,随着中国服务贸易总值的快速增长,出口结构逐步优化。“一带一路”沿线国家出口绝对增加值增长较快,表现良好,但对少数发达国家和低技术含量产业的依赖程度较高。特别是我国服务贸易增值率长期处于较低水平,急需转变服务贸易发展方式。因此,基于出口增加值的身份,通过Shapley值分解来衡量各指标对出口增加值变化的边际贡献。结果表明:人均GDP是增加值变化的主要驱动因素,且相对稳定,但2013年后已被服务业就业人口超越;国民经济技术密度和出口部门技术实力对服务出口增加值的贡献较小且不稳定,两者之间存在较强的负相关关系。因此,增加对“一带一路”沿线国家的服务出口,改善国内营商环境,提高服务业就业人口素质,有利于加快中国服务贸易发展方式的转变。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on the Transformation of China’s Services Trade Development Mode Based on Export Value Added
The development in the trade in services sector is an important way to achieve the transformation of foreign trade development mode of China. However, with the rapid growth of the total value of China's service trade, the export structure has been gradually optimized. The absolute value added of exports has increased rapidly and performed well in countries along the “One Belt And One Road” still, it is highly dependent on a few developed countries and low-technology industries. In particular, the value added rate has been at a low level for a long time, and the development mode of service trade urgently needs to be changed. Therefore, based on the identities of export value added, the marginal Contribution of each index to the Change of value added is measured by the decomposition of Shapley value. The results show that per Capita GDP is the main driving factor for the Change of value added and is relatively stable, but it has been surpassed by the services employment-population after the year of 2013; the Contribution of the national economies technology density and the technical strength of the export sector to the added value of service exports is slight and unstable, and there is a strong negative correlation between them. Therefore, increasing the export of services to the countries along the “Belt and Road”, enhancing the domestic business environment, and improving the quality of the employment-population in the service industry will help accelerate the transformation of China's service trade development mode.
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