巴基斯坦货币贬值与通货膨胀之间的关系

Ramsha Saleem, Rashida Saleem, A. Awan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究利用2001 - 2018年的时间序列数据,实证分析了巴基斯坦货币贬值与通货膨胀之间的关系。尽管巴基斯坦政府采取了稳定物价和促进出口的政策,但多年来观察到汇率贬值,同时通货膨胀率上升。汇率主要是国际贸易的一个关键因素,因为一个国家无法通过其拥有的封闭经济中的自然资源来满足其人口的需求。因此,他们依赖其他市场来满足他们的需求。最终,汇率和通货膨胀是一个国家宏观经济评价的主要决定因素。本研究运用协整检验、VECM模型和相关分析,考察了2001年至2018年巴基斯坦货币贬值与通货膨胀之间的关系。在计量经济模型中,通货膨胀(INF)作为因变量,汇率(用作货币贬值EXC的代理),国内生产总值(GDP)和货币供应量(MS)是研究中的自变量。央行在这一领域的作用一直至关重要。中央银行采取行动稳定国家的货币,有时会出现通货膨胀压力。该研究采用平稳性检验,变量在第二次差异处是平稳性的。协整检验说明通货膨胀与货币贬值之间存在长期关系。相关系数显示通货膨胀与货币贬值之间呈负相关关系。本研究建议,政府应浮动可行的政策平行于汇率(货币贬值/ PKR贬值),以解决持续上升的通货膨胀率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A Nexus between Devaluation and Inflation in Pakistan
This study empirically analyzes the relationship between the devaluation of currency and inflation in Pakistan by using time series data from 2001 to 2018. Although the government in Pakistan adopted policies to stabilize prices and boost exports yet exchange rate depreciation is observed over the years coupled with an increase in inflation. The exchange rate is predominantly a key element of international trade because a country fails to meet the demand of its population through endowed natural resources in a close economy that they have. So, they depend on other markets for the fulfillment of their demand. Eventually, exchange rate and inflation are the main determinants of macroeconomic evaluation in a country. This research work examines the relationship between the devaluation of currency and inflation in Pakistan over the period from 2001 to 2018, with the application of the cointegration test, VECM model, and correlation analysis. In an econometric model Inflation (INF) is taken as a dependent variable and exchange rate (used as a proxy for currency devaluation EXC), gross domestic product (GDP), and money supply (MS) are independent variables in the study. The role of the central bank in this domain has always been crucial. Central Bank takes action to stabilize the currency in the country which sometimes is observed in inflationary pressure. The study employed a stationary test and the variables are found stationary at the second difference. The cointegration test describes that there is a long-run relationship between inflation and devaluation of the currency. The correlation coefficient reveals a negative correlation between inflation and currency devaluation. This study recommends that government should float feasible policies parallel to the exchange rate (currency depreciation/devaluation of PKR) to tackle the persistent rise in the inflation rate.
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