住宅市场存在泡沫吗?天津的实证数据

Pei‐Fen Chen
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引用次数: 1

摘要

为了对我国住宅房地产泡沫水平做出科学判断,本文以天津市住宅房地产泡沫水平为例进行了详细分析。选取2000 - 2015年天津市住宅物业市场9个指标逐一分析,建立综合评价体系。利用PCA-LINMAP耦合模型提取主成分,形成主成分综合指标。然后利用LINMAP模型确定各指标的权重。最后,通过加权计算完成气泡测度。从综合指标体系可以看出,天津住房市场的泡沫是不稳定的,受投资水平和资金投入的影响很大。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Is There a Bubble in the Residential market? Empirical Data from Tianjin
In order to make a scientific judgement of the bubble level of residential property, the data from Tianjin is taken as an example to make a detailed analysis. From 2000 to 2015, nine indicators of residential property market in Tianjin were selected to analyze one by one, and a comprehensive evaluation system was established. Using the PCA-LINMAP coupling model, the principal component is extracted and the principal component synthesis index is formed. Then the weight of each index is determined by using the LINMAP model. Finally, the bubble measure is completed through weighted calculation. From the comprehensive index system, we can see that the bubble in Tianjin's housing market is unstable, which is greatly influenced by the level of investment and capital investment.
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