基于专利的预测市盈率对中国股市投资业绩的影响

Zhaohui Li, Guangyun Deng, Hui-Chung Che
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引用次数: 4

摘要

探讨了上海主板、深圳主板、GE板和中小企业板的中国上市公司(a股)专利指标对a股市盈率的预测能力。通过格兰杰因果检验和时间序列回归,构建了预测PE的专利领先指标和专利预测方程。研究发现,基于较高预测市盈率增长率的选股标准有助于沪深主板构建有价值的股票组合,且优于市场趋势。中小企业板虽然受到中美贸易冲突的严重影响,但也表现良好。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Patent-Based Predictive Price-to-Earnings Ratio on Increasing Investment Performance of China Stock Market
China listed companies (A-shares) in Shanghai Main Board, Shenzhen Main Board, GE Board, and SME Board are discussed the prediction ability of patent indicators to A-share’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE). We constructed patent leading indicators and patent prediction equations for predicting PE via Granger Causality test and time series regression. We found the stock selection criteria by the higher predictive PE growth rate is useful to build valuable stock portfolios for Shanghai Main Board and Shenzhen Main Board with better performance than the market trend. It also worked well on SME Board though is was seriously impacted by China-US trade conflict.
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