土耳其应对叙利亚危机的政治步骤:基于案例研究的决策分析

Orhan Irk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中,多启发式决策模型应用于一个样本案例,旨在分析政治领导人如何以及为什么在危机期间做出决策。分析危机中所做决定的各个方面对于理解解决方案的有效性是很重要的。预计从更广泛的角度分析危机和调查过程将有助于更好地理解土耳其在2012年其RF-4E“幽灵”型飞机被击落时的危机反应。选择这个案例研究的原因是在危机期间为土耳其外交政策在接下来的时期所做的决定的结果。本文由介绍叙土关系概况的导论部分、政治领导人的决策过程和决策以及多启发式决策模型的解释部分、对所选案例的多启发式决策模型的实施部分和结语部分组成。在危机期间,土耳其决定通过改变交战规则来使用武力,并在国际社会中创造积极的看法。然而,它并不满足于仅使用军事力量的决定。土耳其没有等待国际社会的自发反应。土耳其已经动员了北约等国际力量。这意味着两种不同的决策是连续而快速地做出的。土耳其政治领导人依次实施了从备选方案中选出的决定。期望本研究对该领域有所贡献,在未来进行更全面的讨论,以改进对决策过程的研究。关键词:叙利亚危机,政治领导,多启发式模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
TURKEY’S POLITICAL STEPS AGAINST SYRIA CRISIS: DECISION ANALYSIS OVER A CASE STUDY
In this study, the polyheuristic decision-making model is applied to a sample case and it is aimed to analyze how and why political leaders make decisions during a crisis. Analyzing all aspects of a decision made during a crisis is important in understanding how effective the solutions are. It is expected that an analysis of crisis and an investigation of the process from a wider perspective will be useful for better understanding of the Turkey’s reactions during the crisis when its RF-4E “Phantom” type air craft has been shot down in 2012. The reason of choosing this case study is the results of decisions taken duruing the crisis for Turkish foreign policy in the following periods. The article consists of the introduction part about the general overview of Turkish-Syrian relations, a part explaining the decision-making processes and decisions of political leaders as well as the polyheuristic decision-making model, a part with implementation of the model to the choosen case and a conclusion part. During the crisis Turkey has made decision to use military force by changing the rules of engagement and creating the positive perception in the international community. However, it was not contented with the decision to use military force alone. Turkey did not wait for the spontaneous reaction of the international community. Turkey has mobilized international forces like NATO. This means that two different decisions are made sequentially and quickly. Turkish political leaders have implemented the decisions in turn that had been choosen among the alternatives. It is expected that the study would contribute to the fi eld, improving researches on the decision-making processes with more comprehensive discussions in the future. Keywords: Syrian Crisis, Political Leadership, Polyheuristic Model.
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