宏观经济变量对印度股市运行的影响——基于BSE 500指数制造业企业的研究

K. Gurloveleen, Bhatia Bs
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引用次数: 27

摘要

本研究考察了宏观经济变量对印度股票市场运行的影响。10个宏观经济变量的月度数据,即广义货币、活期货币利率、原油价格、汇率、外汇储备、境外机构投资者、财政赤字总额、工业生产指数、通货膨胀率和贸易平衡以及一个股票市场指数,即BSE 500,以达到研究的目的。采用增强型ADF检验、多元回归检验和格兰杰因果检验对结果进行检验。结果发现,境外机构投资者在水平、活期货币利率、原油价格、汇率、外汇储备、财政赤字总额、通货膨胀率、贸易差额等方面在第1个差值和广义货币、工业生产指数等方面在第1个差值趋于平稳。利用这些平稳数据,通过多元回归技术找出显著的宏观经济变量。两个宏观经济变量外国机构投资者和汇率被发现显著。采用格兰杰因果检验检验这两个显著变量与BSE 500指数制造业企业平均收盘价之间的因果关系。已经观察到,这些变量与BSE 500制造企业的收盘价没有关系。该研究还揭示了印度股票市场是一个弱形式的效率,因为在研究期间,变量之间没有发现关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the functioning of Indian Stock Market: A Study of Manufacturing Firms of BSE 500
The study investigated the impact of macroeconomic variables on the functioning of Indian Stock Market., The monthly data of ten macroeconomic variables, namely Broad Money, Call Money Rate, Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Foreign Institutional Investors, Gross Fiscal Deficit, Index of Industrial Production, Inflation Rate and Trade Balance and one stock market index i.e. BSE 500 have been used to attain the objectives of the research. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Test, Multiple Regression and Granger Causality Tests were employed to find out the results. It was found that Foreign Institutional Investors became stationary at level, Call Money Rate, Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserve, Gross Fiscal Deficit, Inflation Rate and Trade Balance at Ist difference and Broad Money and Index of Industrial Production at IInd difference. This stationary data has been applied to find out the significant macroeconomic variables through multiple regression technique. The two macroeconomic variables Foreign Institutional Investors and Exchange Rate were found significant. Granger causality test was used to check the causality relationship between these two significant variables and average closing prices of manufacturing firms of BSE 500. It has been observed that these variables have no relationship with closing prices of BSE 500 manufacturing firms. The study also revealed that the Indian Stock Market was a weak form efficient because no relationship was found amongst the variables during the study period.
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