20世纪下半叶至21世纪初巴伦支海冰情的规律和特征

I. O. Dumanskaya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

北极的变暖,特别是在二十一世纪初加剧,伴随着北极海域冰覆盖面积的显著减少。本文介绍了近年来巴伦支海海冰参数的定量变化,以及影响海冰形成的因素。在21世纪,暖冬的发生频率增加了17%,严冬的发生频率减少了19%。Malye Karmakuly气象站温度、“Kola子午线”样带水温、大气和海洋热通量以及巴伦支海西部边界海流速度显著升高。冰期持续时间平均减少2 ~ 3周,10年冰盖减少率为7.2%。与北极其他海域相比,这是最高的速度。研究表明,巴伦支海冰盖及该地区其他自然环境参数的变率具有旋回特征。据推测,其周期接近84年,与铀的轨道周期相对应。1935-1945年之后的最小海冰面积预计在2019-2029年期间出现。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Regularities and features of ice conditions of the Barents Sea in the second half of XX – early XXI century
The warming of the Arctic, especially intensified at the beginning of the XXI century, is accompanied by a significant decrease in the area of ice cover in the Arctic seas. The article shows the quantitative changes in the ice parameters of the Barents Sea, as well as factors affecting the formation of ice cover in recent years. In the twenty-first century the frequency of occurrence of mild winters has increased by 17%, the frequency of severe winters has decreased by 19%. Significantly increased the temperature at the meteorological station Malye Karmakuly, water temperature at transect "Kola Meridian", atmospheric and oceanic heat fluxes, and speed of sea currents on the Western border of the Barents sea. The duration of the ice period decreased by an average of 2–3 weeks, and the rate of reduction of ice cover was 7.2% for 10 years. This is the highest speed compared to other Arctic seas. The article shows that the variability of the ice cover of the Barents Sea and other parameters of the natural environment in the region has the cyclic character. Presumably, the cycle period is close to 84 years, which corresponds to the orbital period of Uranium. The minimum sea ice extent after 1935–1945 is expected in the period 2019–2029.
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