第四次工业革命对劳动力的挑战

Anisoara – Ionela Diaconu
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引用次数: 2

摘要

伴随前三次工业革命而来的是一个困境,第四次工业革命之初,这个困境又强势回归:在新经济中,人会不会被机器取代?我们打算通过对以往事件的定性分析和对第四次工业革命的假设来解决这个问题。过去两个世纪的经济发展要求劳动力在数量和质量上稳步增长。很快,自动化和机器人学习将改变几乎所有的就业领域。从这些前提出发,本文旨在回答以下问题:10年或20年内会有数十亿人下岗吗?从长远来看,自动化会为所有人创造新的就业机会和繁荣吗?考虑到劳动力市场和个人职业的波动性会增加,人们是否能够应对?对自动化的恐惧,因为这将导致大规模失业,自19世纪以来一直存在,到目前为止还没有成为现实,因为每一个工作岗位被机器取代,至少会创造一个新的工作岗位,同时生活水平也提高了。21世纪带来的挑战无疑比过去蒸汽机、铁路或电力带来的挑战要大得多。没有人能确切地知道自动化对未来不同职业的影响,而且估计转型的顺序也非常困难,因为它有时不仅取决于政治因素,还取决于技术发展。因此,创造新的就业机会和使人们重新回到他们的工作岗位将不是一个单一的努力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Challenges for the Workforce in the Fourth Industrial Revolution
There was a dilemma that accompanied the three previous industrial revolutions, and it came back strongly to the beginning of the fourth: in the new economy, will people be replaced by the machinery or not? It is an issue that we intend to approach in terms of qualitative analysis of previous episodes and assumptions outlined for the fourth industrial revolution. The economic evolutions of the last two centuries have called for a steady increase in the workforce, both numerically and qualitatively. Soon, automatic and robotic learning will change almost all sectors of employment. Starting from these premises, the article aims to respond to the following questions: Will billions of people be laid off in a decade or two?, Is automation, on the long term, going to generate new jobs and prosperity for all? Considering that the volatility of the labor market and individual careers would increase, are people able to cope with them? Fears regarding automation, as this would lead to massive unemployment are present since the XIXth century, and so far have not materialized because for every job lost in favor to machinery it was created at least one new job and in the same time the standard of living has increased. The challenge launched by the 21st century is undoubtedly much greater than the challenge launched in the past by steam engines, railways or electricity. No one can know for sure how the impact of automation on different professions will be in the future, and it is also extremely difficult to estimate the order of transformations because it sometimes depends not only on the political factor but also on the technological developments. Therefore, creating new jobs and the professional reconversion of people to their employment will not be a singular effort.
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