基于BP神经网络的风电功率预测研究

D. Hu, Zhaoyun Zhang, Hao Zhou
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引用次数: 2

摘要

准确预测风电功率有利于缓解电网峰值负荷,提高电网接受风电的能力。针对风电功率预测精度不高的问题,本文提出了一种改进的BP神经网络预测方法,即以提前1小时的功率和其他影响因素为输入的迭代遗传优化BP神经网络功率预测模型。本文选取风速、风向、温度、湿度和气压作为模型的输入数据,同时选取与风电高度相关的前一时段的风电。由于之前相邻矩的值不太可能发生变化,因此本文选取前15分钟、最后一小时和前一天的功率。最后,本文对上述三种情况进行了分析比较,实验表明,该模型能够有效满足电力系统对风电场实际短期功率的相关预测需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on wind power Prediction based on BP neural Network
Accurate prediction of wind power is beneficial to relieve the peak load of power grid and improve the capacity of power grid to accept wind power. Aiming at the problem of low precision of wind power prediction, this paper proposes an improved BP neural network prediction method, namely, an iterative genetic optimization BP neural network power prediction model with the power one hour in advance and other influencing factors as input. In this paper, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and air pressure are selected as the input data of the model, as well as the wind power of the previous period which is highly correlated with wind power. Since it is very unlikely that the values of adjacent moments will change before, the power of the first 15 minutes, the last hour and the previous day are selected in this paper. Finally, this paper analyzes and compares the above three situations, and the experiment shows that the model can effectively meet the relevant prediction demand of the power system for the actual short-term power of the wind farm.
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