社会保障与总量风险与特质风险的相互作用

Daniel Harenberg, A. Ludwig
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引用次数: 13

摘要

我们的问题是,在一个存在特殊风险和总体风险的经济体中,现收现付的社会保障体系是否在改善福利。我们认为,这两种风险之间的相互作用对这个问题很重要。一种是特殊收入风险的反周期方差形式的直接相互作用。另一种间接地出现在一个家庭的生命周期中,因为退休储蓄包含了特殊和总体冲击的历史。我们表明,即使风险在统计上是独立的,这也会导致风险相互作用。在我们的定量分析中,我们发现,尽管资本大量挤出,但以2%的缴费率引入社会保障,预期福利收益将达到一生消费的2.2%。这种福利收益与先前文献中记录的福利损失形成鲜明对比,这些文献孤立地研究了一种风险。我们表明,联合建模这两种风险是至关重要的:60%的保险福利来自风险的相互作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Social Security and the Interactions between Aggregate and Idiosyncratic Risk
We ask whether a PAYG-financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. We argue that interactions between the two risks are important for this question. One is a direct interaction in the form of a countercyclical variance of idiosyncratic income risk. The other indirectly emerges over a household's life-cycle because retirement savings contain the history of idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We show that this leads to risk interactions, even when risks are statistically independent. In our quantitative analysis, we find that introducing social security with a contribution rate of two percent leads to welfare gains of 2.2% of lifetime consumption in expectation, despite substantial crowding out of capital. This welfare gain stands in contrast to the welfare losses documented in the previous literature, which studies one risk in isolation. We show that jointly modeling both risks is crucial: 60% of the welfare benefits from insurance result from the interactions of risks.
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