{"title":"衡量美国社会贴现率:回复阿扎尔","authors":"M. Lally","doi":"10.1080/17446540701720543","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Azar (2007) argues that an appropriate market-based estimate of the US real social discount rate is 5.66%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 5.62 to 5.71%. However, this line of argument implicitly and wrongly equates the risk on public sector projects with that for the optimal portfolio of risky and risk free assets. It also vastly underestimates the confidence interval on the discount rate primarily through ignoring uncertainty surrounding the expected return on risky assets.","PeriodicalId":345744,"journal":{"name":"Applied Financial Economics Letters","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2008-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Measuring the US social discount rate: reply to Azar\",\"authors\":\"M. Lally\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/17446540701720543\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Azar (2007) argues that an appropriate market-based estimate of the US real social discount rate is 5.66%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 5.62 to 5.71%. However, this line of argument implicitly and wrongly equates the risk on public sector projects with that for the optimal portfolio of risky and risk free assets. It also vastly underestimates the confidence interval on the discount rate primarily through ignoring uncertainty surrounding the expected return on risky assets.\",\"PeriodicalId\":345744,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Applied Financial Economics Letters\",\"volume\":\"38 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2008-07-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Applied Financial Economics Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/17446540701720543\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Applied Financial Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17446540701720543","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Measuring the US social discount rate: reply to Azar
Azar (2007) argues that an appropriate market-based estimate of the US real social discount rate is 5.66%, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 5.62 to 5.71%. However, this line of argument implicitly and wrongly equates the risk on public sector projects with that for the optimal portfolio of risky and risk free assets. It also vastly underestimates the confidence interval on the discount rate primarily through ignoring uncertainty surrounding the expected return on risky assets.
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