对美国企业利润专业预测的评价

Applied Financial Economics Letters Pub Date : 2007-07-01 DOI:10.1080/17446540601018907

Hamid Baghestani

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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们表明，专业预测者调查(Survey of Professional forecasts)对1983-2004年美国企业利润增长的一年后预测是无偏的，优于随机漫步预测。然而，调查对象普遍预测为正增长，因此未能准确预测企业利润的负增长。这种偏差可能是由于受访者将不对称成本分配给不正确的正负增长预测。

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An evaluation of professional forecasts of US corporate profits

We show that the one-year-ahead forecast of growth in US corporate profits from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, for 1983–2004, is unbiased and superior to the random walk forecast. Survey respondents, however, generally predicted positive growth and thus failed to accurately predict negative growth in corporate profits. This bias may be due to respondents assigning asymmetric costs to incorrect positive and negative growth predictions.

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Applied Financial Economics Letters

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