1. 印度尼西亚在新世界面临的挑战

A. Patunru, M. Pangestu, M. Basri
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摘要

世界终于从2007-08年的全球金融危机中复苏。在2009年大幅收缩、随后几年缓慢增长之后,全球实际GDP增速在2017年回到了3%。危机过去十年后,经济增长似乎终于显示出可持续复苏的迹象。然而,其他挑战依然存在。贸易增长放缓,尽管2017年有所改善,但仍低于全球金融危机前的水平。贸易增长放缓归因于周期性因素和结构性因素,如生产率增长不足和全球价值链成熟。保护主义是另一个因素,尽管迄今为止,与其说是保护主义措施的增加,不如说是贸易政策的高度不确定性正在影响贸易。政策的不确定性主要源于人们认为全球化没有带来好处。世界上几乎一半的人口,也就是30多亿人,每天只能靠2.5美元或更少的钱生存。全球最富有的10%人口拥有全球85%以上的财富。即使在贫困减少的国家,不平等现象也在加剧。人们普遍认为,这些因素是全球反全球化情绪重新抬头的主要原因,促使各国领导人采取民粹主义和内向型政策。选举结果令人惊讶;其中包括菲律宾罗德里戈·杜特尔特的当选,英国“脱欧”运动的成功
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
1. Challenges for Indonesia in the new world
The world is finally recovering from the 2007–08 global financial crisis. After contracting sharply in 2009 and increasing slowly in the subsequent years, world real GDP growth returned to 3 per cent in 2017. Ten years after the crisis, it appears that growth is at last showing sustainable signs of recovery. Other challenges remain, however. Trade growth has slowed and, despite an improvement in 2017, remains lower than before the global financial crisis. The slowdown in trade growth has been attributed to cyclical factors and to structural factors such as a lack of productivity growth and the maturation of global value chains. Protectionism is another factor, although, to date, it is not so much the increase in protectionist measures as the high level of uncertainty about trade policy that is affecting trade. The policy uncertainty stems primarily from the perceived lack of benefits from globalisation. Almost half the world’s population—that is, more than 3 billion people—have to survive on $2.50 or less every day. The richest 10 per cent of the global population owns more than 85 per cent of the global wealth. Inequality has increased even in the countries where poverty has declined. These factors are widely seen as the main causes of the re-emergence of anti-globalisation sentiment around the world, prompting leaders to adopt populist and inward-looking policies. The electoral consequences have been surprising; they include the election of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, the success of the ‘leave’ campaign in
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