Projecting Public Expenditures for Long-Term Care in Korea

part estimated the numbers of elderly people with different levels of health status by age group, gender, household type. The second part estimated the levels of long-term care services required, by attaching a probability of receiving long-term care services to each cell using from the sample from current year. The third part of the model estimated long-term care expenditure, along the demographic and non-demographic factors' change in various scenarios. Public spending on long-term care could rise from the current level of 0.2~0.3% of GDP to around 0.44~2.30% by 2040.