石油和天然气公司及其公允价值:来自印尼证券交易所的证据

Nur Hakim Fibrianto, R. Hendrawan
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引用次数: 1

摘要

国家在原油和天然气生产子部门的收入仍然很高,因此公众仍然希望投资其股票。在根据基本数据估计股票的公平价格时,需要进行估值分析。本研究的目的是使用DCF-FCFF方法分析MEDC、ENRG和ELSA三家油气公司的股票估值,并使用RV PER-PBV方法对其进行控制。本研究使用2013-2017年的历史数据作为2018-2022年预测的基础,分为悲观、温和和乐观三种情景。对比2019年1月2日的市场份额公允价值结果,DCF-FCFF法得出的结论为悲观:MEDCENRG(估值过高),ELSA(估值过低);中度:MEDC-ENRG-ELSA(低估);乐观:MEDC-ENRG-ELSA(被低估)。RV PER-PBV方法显示,MEDC-ENRGELSA的价值仍在Q1-2018年的IDX市场范围内。对于投资者的建议是在低估的情况下买入股票,在高估的情况下卖出股票,而对于进一步的研究人员来说,可以在石油和天然气行业之外的其他行业进行研究,并使用更多的假设数据来验证有效性
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Oil and Gas Companies and Their Fair Value: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange
State revenues in crude petroleum and natural gas production sub-sector are still high, so the public still wants to invest its shares. There needs to be a valuation analysis in estimating the fair price of shares based on fundamental data. The purpose of this study was to analyze the valuation of shares in oil and gas companies MEDC, ENRG, and ELSA, using the DCF-FCFF method and control it using the RV PER-PBV method. In this study, there are three scenarios: pessimistic, moderate and optimistic using historical data from 2013-2017 as the basis for projections for 2018-2022. Comparing the results of the market share fair value on January 2, 2019, the DCF-FCFF method concluded that the condition was pessimistic: MEDCENRG (overvalued), ELSA (undervalued); moderate: MEDC-ENRG-ELSA (undervalued); optimistic: MEDC-ENRG-ELSA (undervalued). The RV PER-PBV method shows that the value of MEDC-ENRGELSA is still within the IDX market range Q1-2018. Recommendations for investors are to buy stocks in undervalued conditions and sell them in overvalued conditions, while for further researchers research can be done in other sectors besides the oil and gas sector and more assumption data are used for the validity of
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