乌云还是一线希望?不确定性与气候变化

Yu-Fu Chen, M. Funke, N. Glanemann
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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文通过连续时间实物期权建模框架的棱镜考察了奈特不确定性对最优气候政策的影响。我们分析确定最优跨期气候政策的模糊性。此外,还提供了数值模拟来说明该模型的性质。研究结果表明,奈特不确定性的增加加速了气候政策的制定,即政策制定者更不愿意将气候政策的时机推迟到未来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change
This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguity. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policymakers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.
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