结合雨量计数据在上青尼罗河流域进行雷达雨量估算的误差建模

Megbar W. Birhan, U. Raju, S. Kenea
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摘要

从气象雷达反射率数据准确和精确地测量降雨量,对于补充雨量计网络和密度不足所提供的空间和时间测量的有限特征是必不可少的。气象雷达虽然具有较高的时空分辨率,但由于反射率与雨率的转换以及弹丸降雨运动等因素,其误差来源多种多样。利用弹丸降雨运动修正对误差建模进行改进,是提高雷达数据质量的必要手段。然而,在世界各地以及埃塞俄比亚都没有很好的记录。因此,本研究的目的是通过结合埃塞俄比亚青尼罗河上游流域的雨量测量数据,生成气象雷达降雨估计的误差模型。考虑弹丸降雨运动对反射率和降雨率数据的修正,确定经验误差模型参数值。得到模型参数值,乘因子(a)为55,指数因子(b)为1.12,比例误差标准差为0.08,随机误差标准差为0.07。总误差范围为-0.45 ~ 1.16 mm,比例误差域大于随机误差域。应用弹丸降雨运动修正后,总误差降低了12%。综上所述,弹丸法的假设对于改善青尼罗河上游埃塞俄比亚乃至全世界的雷达数据都是非常有用的。因此,我们希望将这种方法扩展到其他地区。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Error Modeling Radar Rainfall Estimation Through Incorporating Rain Gauge Data Over Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia
Accurate and precise measurements of rainfall from weather radar reflectivity data is essential to supplement the limited characterization of spatial and temporal measurements provided by insufficient network and density of rain gauges. While weather radar has high spatial and temporal resolution, it contaminated with various sources of errors due to the conversion of reflectivity to rain rate and the projectile rainfall motion. Error modeling improvement with the application of projectile rainfall motion correction is essential to improve the radar data. However, stile is not well documented for over the world as well as Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to generate an error model for weather radar rainfall estimation by incorporating gauge rainfall data over upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Projectile rainfall motion correction is considered on the data of reflectivity and rain rate to determine empirical error model parameter values. The model parameter values are found, multiplicative factor (a) was 55, the exponent factor (b) was 1.12, standard deviation of proportional error was 0.08 and standard deviation of random error was 0.07. The value of the total error varied from -0.45 to 1.16 mm and the domain of proportional error was greater than random error. After applying the projectile rainfall motion correction, the total error is reduced by 12%. In general, the assumption of projectile method is quite useful for improving the radar data over upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia as well as over the world. Hence, we wish to extend this method for other regions.
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