Estimating the effects of climate change on Agricultural production in Eastern and Middle African Countries: An Econometric Analysis

The level of agricultural production in eastern and middle African countries has been in the downfall in the recent past years. This has been theoretically attributed to many factors including climate change. Consequently, a study was conducted to estimate the effects of climate change on Agricultural production in Eastern and Middle African Countries. The study employed longitudinal research design using panel data from various sources including International Fertilizer Industry Association, UNCTAD and FAO. The study covered 24 countries over the period 1970 to 2013 having estimated a production function. The study established that livestock production and labor force involved in agriculture had a positive effect on agricultural production whereas, the use of modern agricultural inputs (agricultural machinery and fertilizer) had a negative effect on agricultural production in the countries under study. Climatic variables showed that rise in temperatures had a positive effect on agricultural production while precipitation increase had a negative effect on agricultural production.