模拟布鲁里溃疡在加纳中部地区的传播

N. Cynthia, Nyarko Peter Kwesi, Ampofi Isaac, Asante Emmanuel
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引用次数: 2

摘要

布鲁里溃疡(BU)的病原体已知是溃疡分枝杆菌,其传播方式完全未知,尽管公认该疾病与受污染的水有关。这种假设的传播涉及人类被捕食软体动物、蜗牛和幼鱼的水虫(病媒)叮咬。这种假设的传播还涉及人类食用受感染的鱼或青蛙。本研究旨在促进加纳中部地区沿奥芬河社区布鲁里溃疡传播机制的动态和分析。确定了模型均衡,并建立了模型均衡的条件。基本繁殖数,采用Next Generation方法,其估计值为1.20771。结果表明,大于1,表明感染在人群中呈水平传播。布鲁里溃疡易感、感染和恢复(SIR)型模型的传播动态也表明,只要溃疡分枝杆菌的蓄水池继续维持足够的受感染水虫和受感染的鱼或受感染的青蛙来控制疾病,该疾病将继续在研究地区传播。该研究进一步得出结论,由于布鲁里溃疡的传播方式,其在受影响社区的传播率仍然很高。本研究建议应重视采取适当的控制措施,包括大众教育和及时治疗,以遏制传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modelling Transmission of Buruli Ulcer in the Central Region of Ghana
The pathogen of Buruli Ulcer (BU) is known to be Mycobacterium Ulcerans whose mode of transmission is entirely not known, although the disease is recognised to be associated with contaminated water. The hypothesised transmission involves humans being bitten by the water bugs (vector) that prey on mollusks, snails and young fishes. The hypothesised transmission also involves humans feeding on an infected fish or frog. This study seeks to contribute to the dynamics and analyses of the transmission mechanism of Buruli Ulcer in communities along Offin River in the Central Region of Ghana. The model equilibria were determined and conditions for the equilibria were also established. The basic reproduction number, was derived using the Next Generation approach and its estimated value was 1.20771. The result reveals that, is greater than 1, indicating a horizontal spread of the infection across the population. The transmission dynamics of Buruli Ulcer model of the Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) type also show that the disease will continue to spread at the study areas as long as the reservoir for Mycobacterium Ulcerans continue to sustain enough infected water bugs and infected fish or infected frog to contain the disease. The study further concludes that, the rate of spread of Buruli Ulcer in the affected communities continue to be high due to its mode of transmission. This study suggest that adequate control measures including mass education and prompt treatment to curb the spread should be emphasized.
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