中国的权力地位及其对中国世界秩序的影响

D. Day
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引用次数: 0

摘要

根据高盛的预测,以美元计算,中国的GDP将在2030年超过美国,成为世界第一。这就提出了一个问题:中国的世界秩序是否会在不久的将来到来?马丁·雅克(Martin Jacques),他在《当中国统治世界》一书中通过关注经济实力对上述问题的回答是“是的”。然而,约瑟夫·奈认为,军事和经济力量(硬实力)不足以让一个国家统治世界;塑造他人偏好的能力(软实力)在这方面也起着非常重要的作用。本文认为,由于中国尚未成为修正主义国家,因此很难妄下结论说中国的世界秩序正在到来。原因是:中国成为世界上最大的经济体并不是一件确定的事情,自由世界秩序仍将由美国领导,亚投行和“一带一路”对中国提升实力地位没有多大帮助,中国没有为世界其他国家设定具有中国特色的共同价值观。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
China’s Power Status and Its Impact on Chinese World Order
According to Goldman Sachs‘s projection, China‘s GDP, in terms of US dollars, will overtake that of the United States in 2030 to become the world number one. This raises the question whether Chinese world order is coming in the near future. Martin Jacques, whose answer to the above question is ―yes‖ in his book ―When China Rules the World‖ by focusing on economic power. However, Joseph Nye argued that military and economic forces (hard power) are not enough for a country to rule the world; the ability to shape the preferences of others (soft power) also plays a very important role in that matter. This paper finds that it is hard to jump to a conclusion that Chinese world order is coming, for it has not become revisionist state yet. The reasons for that are: China becomes the world‘s largest economy that is not a sure thing, the liberal world order will still be led by the U.S., AIIB and OBOR don‘t help China much in enhancing its power status and China has not set the common values with Chinese characteristics for the rest of world to follow.
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