{"title":"塞内加尔每日COVID-19报告阳性病例的短期预测模型","authors":"A. Diop, Abdourahmane Ndao, C. Seck, I. Faye","doi":"10.16929/ajas/2021.1507.260","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we use an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to study the evolution of COVID-19 disease in Senegal and then make short-term predictions about the number of people likely to be infected by the coronavirus. We are dealing with daily data provided by the Senegalese Ministry of Health during the period from March 2, 2020 to March 2, 2021.Our results show that the peak of the disease appearsduring the second wave seems to be reached on February 12 2021. But they also show that the number of COVID-19 infections will be around 200 cases per day during the next 30 days if the trend of the total number of tests performed is maintained.","PeriodicalId":332314,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","volume":"36 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Short-term prediction model for daily COVID-19 reported positive cases in Senegal\",\"authors\":\"A. Diop, Abdourahmane Ndao, C. Seck, I. Faye\",\"doi\":\"10.16929/ajas/2021.1507.260\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this work, we use an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to study the evolution of COVID-19 disease in Senegal and then make short-term predictions about the number of people likely to be infected by the coronavirus. We are dealing with daily data provided by the Senegalese Ministry of Health during the period from March 2, 2020 to March 2, 2021.Our results show that the peak of the disease appearsduring the second wave seems to be reached on February 12 2021. But they also show that the number of COVID-19 infections will be around 200 cases per day during the next 30 days if the trend of the total number of tests performed is maintained.\",\"PeriodicalId\":332314,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"African Journal of Applied Statistics\",\"volume\":\"36 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"2\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"African Journal of Applied Statistics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2021.1507.260\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"African Journal of Applied Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2021.1507.260","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Short-term prediction model for daily COVID-19 reported positive cases in Senegal
In this work, we use an Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to study the evolution of COVID-19 disease in Senegal and then make short-term predictions about the number of people likely to be infected by the coronavirus. We are dealing with daily data provided by the Senegalese Ministry of Health during the period from March 2, 2020 to March 2, 2021.Our results show that the peak of the disease appearsduring the second wave seems to be reached on February 12 2021. But they also show that the number of COVID-19 infections will be around 200 cases per day during the next 30 days if the trend of the total number of tests performed is maintained.
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