外汇市场的非对称波动连通性

Jozef Baruník, E. Kočenda, Lukáš Vácha
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引用次数: 31

摘要

我们展示了好坏波动是如何通过外汇市场传播的,也就是说,我们提供了外汇市场上不对称波动连通性的证据。利用2007年至2015年间交易最活跃的货币的高频日内数据,我们记录了由于糟糕而不是良好的波动性而导致的溢出效应的主要不对称。我们还表明,负面溢出效应主要与欧洲主权债务危机的拖累有关,而正面溢出效应则与次贷危机、世界主要央行不同的货币政策以及大宗商品市场的发展有关。货币和实体经济事件的组合似乎是波动性溢出的净正不对称背后的原因,而财政因素与净负溢出有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Asymmetric Volatility Connectedness on Forex Markets
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 - 2015 we document the dominating asymmetries in spillovers that are due to bad rather than good volatility. We also show that negative spillovers are chiefly tied to the dragging sovereign debt crisis in Europe while positive spillovers are correlated with the subprime crisis, different monetary policies among key world central banks, and developments on commodities markets. It seems that a combination of monetary and real-economy events is behind the net positive asymmetries in volatility spillovers, while fiscal factors are linked with net negative spillovers.
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