Investment in China’s Belt and Road Project in Kazakhstan and its Risk Assessment

. Oases agriculture is one of the most vulnerable primary industry to climate change and human activates. Central Asia is one of the arid regions highly vulnerable to water scarcity. Located in Central Asia, Kazakhstan is characterized as a semi-arid region which includes dry steppe land in the south. Agriculture carried out in this area is typically oasis farmland with water taken from local rivers used for irrigation. During the former Soviet Union, irrigation projects were widely carried out to expand agricultural land, and large-scale irrigation projects were created in several areas. Therefore, many irrigated farmlands were abandoned due to the collapse of the former Soviet Union. However, China's investment in Kazakhstan agriculture is cultivating once abandoned agricultural land and developing new oases agricultural land. China's "One Belt, One Road" project has led to urbanization along railroads and highways, reducing the area of agricultural land. Meanwhile, China is also developing new agricultural land in this region. These two are acts that contradict each other. Our study area of Zharkent (Panfilov) Region is located on the border between Kazakhstan and China, is a semi-arid area and has been cultivating corn by irrigation from the Ili River and the Usek River for many years. Therefore,