The hazards of risk assessment

Risk assessment is a tool to help drive informed decision making regarding the implementation of hazard-control measures. This paper examines the limitations of quantitative risk assessment. The paper explores factors that can lead to inaccurate or ineffective risk assessments, including faulty probability estimates, failure to adequately account for human factors, and failure to account for all possible failure modes. The paper discusses the proper and improper uses of risk assessment and warns against misusing risk assessment to steer decision making towards predetermined outcomes. Finally, the paper recommends techniques to improve the accuracy of risk assessment conclusions and to properly use them in deciding on hazard-control measures. The paper's analysis and conclusions are generally limited to safety hazards and are based primarily on an Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) perspective.