超快北极放大及其控制机制

Tyler P. Janoski, M. Previdi, G. Chiodo, Karen L. Smith, L. Polvani
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摘要

北极放大(AA)被定义为与全球平均水平相比,北极变暖的增强,是历史观测和未来气候模拟的一个强有力的特征。尽管许多研究调查了AA机制,但它们的相对重要性仍然存在争议。在本研究中,我们考察了这些机制的不同时间尺度,以提高我们对AA的根本原因的理解。我们使用社区地球系统模型v1,大集合配置(CESM-LE),生成二氧化碳瞬间翻两番的2年大集合模拟。我们表明,在二氧化碳增加之后,在北极海冰发生任何重大损失之前,AA几乎立即(在几天内)出现。通过详细的大气能量收支分析,我们确定了模拟期间AA机制的时变贡献。此外,我们还研究了这些机制对CO2四倍季节的依赖性。我们发现,在CO2强迫的驱动下,北极与全球平均潜热通量的不同异常导致的地表热吸收是短(1个月)时间尺度上最重要的AA贡献者。我们的研究结果证实了AA是大气对辐射强迫固有的快速响应,并揭示了一个新的AA机制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Ultrafast Arctic amplification and its governing mechanisms
Arctic amplification (AA), defined as the enhanced warming of the Arctic compared to the global average, is a robust feature of historical observations and simulations of future climate. Despite many studies investigating AA mechanisms, their relative importance remains contested. In this study, we examine the different timescales of these mechanisms to improve our understanding of AA’s fundamental causes. We use the Community Earth System Model v1, Large Ensemble configuration (CESM-LE), to generate large ensembles of 2 years simulations subjected to an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2. We show that AA emerges almost immediately (within days) following CO2 increase and before any significant loss of Arctic sea ice has occurred. Through a detailed energy budget analysis of the atmospheric column, we determine the time-varying contributions of AA mechanisms over the simulation period. Additionally, we examine the dependence of these mechanisms on the season of CO2 quadrupling. We find that the surface heat uptake resulting from the different latent heat flux anomalies between the Arctic and global average, driven by the CO2 forcing, is the most important AA contributor on short (<1 month) timescales when CO2 is increased in January, followed by the lapse rate feedback. The latent heat flux anomaly remains the dominant AA mechanism when CO2 is increased in July and is joined by the surface albedo feedback, although AA takes longer to develop. Other feedbacks and energy transports become relevant on longer (>1 month) timescales. Our results confirm that AA is an inherently fast atmospheric response to radiative forcing and reveal a new AA mechanism.
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