经济学研究中偏见的力量

IF 3.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Journal Pub Date : 2017-10-24 DOI:10.1111/ecoj.12461

John P. A. Ioannidis, T. D. Stanley, Hristos Doucouliagos

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引用次数: 431

摘要

我们调查了实证经济学研究可信度的两个关键维度:统计能力和偏差。我们调查了159篇实证经济学文献，这些文献借鉴了64,076个经济参数的估计，这些估计在6700多个实证研究中报告。一半的研究领域有近90%的成果缺乏动力。统计能力的中位数为18%或更低。对那些报告的结果进行简单加权平均，这些报告的结果具有足够的功率(功率≥80%)，表明这些实证经济学文献中近80%的报告效应被夸大了;通常是两倍，三分之一是四倍或更多。

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The Power of Bias in Economics Research

We investigate two critical dimensions of the credibility of empirical economics research: statistical power and bias. We survey 159 empirical economics literatures that draw upon 64,076 estimates of economic parameters reported in more than 6,700 empirical studies. Half of the research areas have nearly 90% of their results under-powered. The median statistical power is 18%, or less. A simple weighted average of those reported results that are adequately powered (power ≥ 80%) reveals that nearly 80% of the reported effects in these empirical economics literatures are exaggerated; typically, by a factor of two and with one-third inflated by a factor of four or more.

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来源期刊

Economic Journal ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

3.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Economic Journal is the Royal Economic Society''s flagship title, and is one of the founding journals of modern economics. Over the past 125 years the journal has provided a platform for high quality and imaginative economic research, earning a worldwide reputation excellence as a general journal publishing papers in all fields of economics for a broad international readership. It is invaluable to anyone with an active interest in economic issues and is a key source for professional economists in higher education, business, government and the financial sector who want to keep abreast of current thinking in economics.