出口多元化如何影响经济增长?

Muma Business Review Pub Date : 2019-07-16 DOI:10.28945/4232
Marlo B Murphy-Braynen
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文采用混合方法对现有计量经济学研究进行文献综述,以确定出口多样化与经济增长的关键驱动因素,并检验出口多样化是推动还是阻碍经济增长。本文与以往的研究有着根本的不同,因为它侧重于确定使用的关键变量、使用的频率和它们的重要程度,基于计量经济学研究,这些研究侧重于衡量出口多样化、经济增长以及发达国家和发展中国家多样化与增长之间的联系,同时强调了这一文献中的一个关键空白,即缺乏对小岛屿国家的实证研究。本文发现,在所有研究中,有8个变量的使用频率在10%或更高,即实际人均GDP、教育、人口、国内投资、市场距离、贸易开放程度、出口集中度和法治。基于文献回顾,支持出口多元化的关键因素是包括高等教育在内的人力资本积累、国内投资、人口、机构质量、基础设施质量和市场准入。相反,阻碍出口多样化或增加出口集中的因素是经济距离(远离主要市场)、对贸易开放、贸易条件下降、外国直接投资、汇率波动和汇率高估。同样,在经济增长方面,文献综述表明,促进经济增长的关键因素是法治、投资比例、贸易条件的有利变动、技术、高等教育和国际开放程度的提高,而抑制经济增长的因素是生育率、政府消费占GDP的比例和通货膨胀率。在将出口多元化与经济增长联系起来的关键变量方面,根据文献,贸易一体化变量主要分为出口构成、贸易导向、出口结构、地理结构和贸易战略六大类。在审查了关于出口多样化及其与经济增长的关系的现有文献之后,一个被忽视的研究领域是缺乏审查小岛屿发展中国家出口多样化以及出口多样化在这些特定情况下如何可能或可能不促进经济增长的研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How Does Export Diversification Impact Economic Growth?
The paper uses a mixed method approach to conduct a literature review of existing econometric studies to determine the key drivers of export diversification and economic growth, and to examine whether export diversification propels or hinders economic growth. The paper differs fundamentally from previous studies, as it focuses on identifying the key variables used, the frequency with which they are used and their degree of significance based on econometric studies that focused on measuring export diversification, economic growth and the linkage between diversification and growth in developed and developing countries, while highlighting a key gap in this literature, namely a lack of empirical studies focused on small island states. The paper finds that eight variables were used across all studies at a frequency of 10% or greater – namely, real GDP per capita, education, population, domestic investment, market distance, openness to trade, export concentration and rule of law. Based on the literature review, the key factors which support export diversification are human capital accumulation inclusive of higher education, domestic investment, population, quality of institutions, quality of infrastructure and market access. Conversely the factors that retard export diversification or increase export concentration are economic distance (remoteness from major markets), openness to trade, and declining terms of trade, foreign direct investment, exchange rate volatility and exchange rate overvaluation. Similarly, with regards to economic growth, the literature review suggests that the key factors which promote economic growth are rule of law, investment ratio, favorable movements in the terms of trade, technology, higher education and increased international openness while the factors that inhibit economic growth are fertility rate, the ratio of government consumption to GDP, and the inflation rate. In terms of the key variables used to link export diversification to economic growth, based on the literature, the six main categories of trade integration variables include export composition, trade orientation, export structure, geographic structure and trade strategy. After having reviewed the extant literature on export diversification and its relationship to economic growth, one of the overlooked areas of research is a lack of studies examining export diversification in small island developing states, and how export diversification may or may not contribute to economic growth in those particular contexts.
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