Technological Change as Chaotic Process

In this paper, we draw upon the concepts of chaos theory to examine technological change as a pattern of punctuated equilibrium through the alternation of continuity and discontinuity across time. We advocate the application of the chaos mathematical technique of time‐varying local Lyapunov exponents to estimate the rates of change, timing of technological transitions and the continuity–discontinuity loop time periods. To illustrate our framework of ideas, we investigated and compared the development of four technologies – semiconductor, display, software, and biotechnology – from 1976 to 2005, using time series patent data. Implications for theory, method, and practice are discussed.