预防全球灾害的全球洪水预报

F. Hirpa, F. Pappenberger, L. Arnal, Calum A. Baugh, H. Cloke, E. Dutra, R. Emerton, B. Revilla-Romero, P. Salamon, Paul Smith, E. Stephens, F. Wetterhall, E. Zsoter, J. T. Pozo
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引用次数: 6

摘要

在全球范围内,洪水造成的死亡人数占所有与天气有关的灾害总人数的一半以上,造成大量死亡和重大经济损失。全球规模的洪水预报系统在减少灾害风险方面发挥着关键作用:它们为一些没有当地洪水预警系统的国家提供早期洪水信息,并为拥有自己预警系统的国家服务机构提供附加价值信息。由于全球范围的全面覆盖和预报技术的不断提高,全球洪水预报正变得越来越有吸引力。在本章中,我们介绍了大尺度洪水预报的最新进展,重点介绍了现有的全球和大陆洪水预报系统。我们还回顾了在实践中评估和提高预报技能的不同科学方法,如评估方法、降水偏差校正、多模式方法和数据同化。此外,我们还讨论了如何使用洪水预报信息来支持人道主义倡议的日常运作。我们还强调了改进预测条款以满足最终用户期望的剩余挑战。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global Flood Forecasting for Averting Disasters Worldwide
Globally, floods are responsible for more than half of the total people affected by all weather‐related disasters combined, causing a large number of deaths and significant economic losses. Global‐scale flood forecasting systems play a key role in disaster risk reduction: they provide early flood information for several nations who are without local flood early warning systems and function as added value information for national services with their own early warning systems. Global flood forecasting is increasingly becoming attractive due to complete worldwide coverage and improving forecast skills. In this chapter, we present the recent advances in large‐scale flood forecasting with a focus on already existing global and continental flood forecasting systems in operation. We also review different scientific methodologies in practice for evaluating and improving the forecast skill such as evaluation methods, precipitation bias corrections, multimodel approaches, and data assimilation. Additionally, we discuss how flood forecast information is used for supporting everyday operations of a humanitarian initiative. We also highlight the remaining challenges of improving the forecast provisions to meet end‐users' expectations.
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