基于LSTM的500kV输电线路DLR微气象参数预测

Zhicheng Liu, Xiangming Dong, Hao Yan, Qunshan Li, Kefan Zhu, B. Yi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了充分挖掘输电线路的传输潜力,有必要采用输电线路的动态线路额定值(Dynamic Line Rating, DLR)。考虑到电网决策的时效性,将EMD-BiLSTM-BO模型与递归多步预报策略相结合,完成微气象的日前预报。考虑递推多步预报策略的累积误差,建立了基于预报误差的高斯分布模型,用于保守微气象参数。此外,建立了Arrhenius-Weibull模型,模拟了导线在高温环境下长期工作造成的老化损伤。华中地区仙梦二号500kV输电线路的实例结果表明,电网管理者可以利用本文提出的DLR动态调整输电线路电流,在保证安全可靠的前提下,极大地挖掘现有输电线路的输电潜力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prediction of Micrometeorological Parameters Based on LSTM for DLR of 500kV Transmission Line
In order to fully tap the transmission potential of transmission lines, it is necessary to use the Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) of transmission lines. Due to the timeliness of power grid decision-making, EMD-BiLSTM-BO model and Recursive multi-step forecast strategy are combined to complete the day ahead forecast of micro meteorology. Considering the cumulative error from recursive multi-step forecast strategy, the Gauss Distribution model is established based on the forecast error, which used to conservative micrometeorological parameters. Furthermore, the Arrhenius-Weibull model is established to simulate the aging damage of wire due to long-term working in high temperature environment. A case result of XIANMENG II 500kV transmission line in Central China show that, power grid managers can use DLR proposed in this paper to dynamically adjust transmission line current to greatly tap the transmission potential of existing transmission lines on the premise of ensuring safety and reliability.
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