瓦格纳法则在欧盟成员国转型经济中的有效性:面板因果分析

Selim Demez
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在经济学文献中,特别是自19世纪以来,一直受到高度重视的一个主要问题是公共支出与经济增长之间的关系。在处理这种关系的文献中有两种理论方法。第一个是瓦格纳定律,该定律指出,随着经济增长,公共支出也会增加。第二个问题与凯恩斯假说有关,该假说认为公共支出会促进经济增长。换句话说,瓦格纳断言因果关系从增长到公共支出,而凯恩斯则声称公共支出导致增长。在本研究中,使用1995年至2019年11个欧盟成员国转型经济体的年度数据,使用Dumitrescu和Hurlin(2012)面板因果关系检验分析了瓦格纳定律的有效性。我们在这项研究中的主要目的是确定公共支出是否可以作为欧洲联盟成员转型期经济体的有效政策工具。测试结果显示,经济增长与公共支出之间存在单向因果关系。换句话说,瓦格纳定律对研究的国家群体和时期是有效的
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Validity of Wagner’s Law in EU Member Transition Economies: Panel Causality Analysis
One of the main issues which has been given great emphasis in economics literature, particularly since the 19th century, is that of the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth. There are two theoretical approaches in the literature dealing with this relationship. The first is Wagner’s law which states that public expenditure increases as growth expands. The second is related to the Keynesian hypothesis which states that public spending encourages growth. In other words, while Wagner asserts that the causality runs from growth to public spending, Keynes claims that public spending causes growth. In this study, the validity of Wagner’s Law was analyzed with the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test using annual data from between the years 1995 and 2019 for eleven European Union member transition economies. Our main purpose in this study was to determine whether public expenditure can be used as an effective policy tool in transition economies that are members of the European Union. The test results revealed that there is one-way causality from growth to public spending. In other words, Wagner’s Law is valid for the country group and period subject to the study
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