Evaluating Chemical Supply Chain Criticality in the Water Treatment Industry: A Risk Analysis and Mitigation Model

The assurance of the operability of surface water treatment facilities lies in many factors, but the factor with the largest impact on said assurance is the availability of the necessary chemicals. Facilities across the country vary in their processes and sources, but all require chemicals to produce potable water. The purpose of this project was to develop a risk assessment tool to determine the shortfalls and risks in the water treatment industry's chemical supply chain, which was used to produce a risk mitigation plan ensuring plant operability. To achieve this, a Fault Tree was built to address four main areas of concern: (i) market supply and demand, (ii) chemical substitutability, (iii) chemical transportation, and (iv) chemical storage process. Expert elicitation was then conducted to formulate a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and develop Radar Charts, regarding the operations and management of specific plants. These tools were then employed to develop a final risk mitigation plan comprising two parts: (i) a quantitative analysis comparing and contrasting the risks of the water treatment plants under study and (ii) a qualitative recommendation for each of the plants-both culminating in a mitigation model on how to control and monitor chemical-related risks.