我们是如何来到这里的

Jon S. Bailey, M. Burch
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引用次数: 18

摘要

如今,主流宏观经济学在公众和其他领域的经济学家中都名声不佳。这不足为奇。即使在最基本的宏观问题上,也几乎没有达成共识。问顶级学者(http://www.economist.com/node/21564175)为什么美国危机后的复苏如此缓慢(http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/10/polling-experts),你会得到许多不同的相互矛盾的答案(http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/10/polling-experts-0)。但是,这种普遍蔑视的最明显原因是,经济学家未能预测到大萧条以来最严重、最痛苦的经济衰退是可能发生的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How We Got Here
MAINSTREAM macroeconomics has a pretty poor reputation these days, both among the public at large and among economists in other fields. This is hardly surprising. There is little consensus on even the most basic questions in macro. Ask top academics (http://www.economist.com/node/21564175) why America’s post-crisis recovery has been so slow (http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/10/polling-experts) and you will get many different conflicting answers (http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/10/polling-experts-0) . But the most obvious reason for the widespread disdain is that the profession failed to predict that the biggest and most painful downturn since the Great Depression was even possible.
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