美国宏观经济预测者夸大了他们的差异吗?

ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic) Pub Date : 2014-09-15 DOI:10.2139/SSRN.2496433

Michael P. Clements

{"title":"美国宏观经济预测者夸大了他们的差异吗?","authors":"Michael P. Clements","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2496433","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Application of the Bernhardt, Campello and Kutsoati (2006) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.","PeriodicalId":425229,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2014-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?\",\"authors\":\"Michael P. Clements\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/SSRN.2496433\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Application of the Bernhardt, Campello and Kutsoati (2006) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.\",\"PeriodicalId\":425229,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"15 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2014-09-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"4\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2496433\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2496433","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 4

摘要

将Bernhardt, Campello和Kutsoati(2006)的羊群检验应用于历年年度产出增长和通胀预测表明，预测者倾向于夸大他们的差异，除非在最短的视界上他们倾向于羊群。我们考虑这些类型的行为是否有助于解释专业预测者有时做出的点预测和直方图预测相互不一致的困惑。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

查看原文本刊更多论文

Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?

Application of the Bernhardt, Campello and Kutsoati (2006) test of herding to the calendar-year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

ERN: Hypothesis Testing (Topic)

自引率

0.00%

发文量