Reliability model of sequence motions and its solving idea

Mechanical structural reliability has been studied since the 1960s and gradually applied in engineering machinery, aerospace, electrical equipment, and other fields [1, 5, 8, 13, 18, 20]. However, with the development of machinery to high precision and automation, the precision of mechanism motion has gradually become the main index for reliability evaluation [9, 10]. In the 1980s, mechanism motion precision started to be analyzed comprehensively from the perspective of probability statistics. Sandler [17] analyzed the kinematic and dynamic precision of simple mechanisms with a nonlinear method. Rhyu and Kwak [16] studied the optimization design of the planar four-bar linkages based on reliability. By the 1990s, progress had been made in applications of mechanism motion reliability. Misawa [12] proposed a research method for predicting the reliability of a deployable satellite antenna based on conventional reliability analysis. Then by the turn of this century, the reliability analysis of mechanism motion became increasingly based on simulation methods with the rapid development of computer technology. Rao and Bhatti [15] systematically established a probabilistic model of a simple manipulator based on Gaussian distribution and a Markov stochastic process. Kim et al. [11] calculated the reliability of an open-loop mechanism considering machining error and hinge clearance based on AFOSM (Advanced first order second moment) method and Monte-Carlo simulation. Asri et al. [2] analyzed the fatigue reliability of a wheel steering mechanism with a Monte-Carlo simulation method. Moreover, the reliability yao Sun Zhili Sun Mingang yin Jie Zhou