Nexus between Exchange Rate Volatility and Oil Price Fluctuations: Evidence from India

The price of crude oil has fluctuated in India over the past few decades which has drawn significant attention because of it impact on all economic sectors. The present study aims to identify how oil price volatility affects the real exchange rate in India from 1st July 2009 to 2nd January 2020. For short-run and long-run analysis, various econometric methods have been applied, including Granger Causality, ARDL Bound test, FEVD, and IRF. The study divided the entire sample into sub-samples based on Breakpoint analysis and then performed the ARDL Bound testing procedure in each sub-sample. Causality results revealed that most samples exhibited strong unidirectional causality from oil prices to exchange rates. However, the long-run and short-run results from the ARDL model failed to detect any cointegration among the underlying variables for the entire sample. The calculated F-statistics is 4.35, which is less than the lower and upper critical bound values provided by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001). The GIRF has been used to calculate the dynamic marginal effect of a one-standard-deviation shock in oil prices on the current and future values of the Rupee-Dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate fell in the first three samples due to one standard deviation shock in oil prices. However, the contribution of oil prices to the exchange rate is positive in the fourth sample period.