国际汇款流入对埃塞俄比亚投资和经济增长的影响

Kidanemariam Gidey
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引用次数: 0

摘要

根据世界银行移民与发展报告,埃塞俄比亚是撒哈拉以南非洲地区最大的汇款接收国之一。但是很少注意评价汇款流入对埃塞俄比亚经济的影响。因此,本文研究了1991-2020年埃塞俄比亚国际汇款流入、私人投资和经济增长之间的关系。本研究采用协整的ARDL方法来探讨这些经济变量之间的关系。计量分析结果表明,从长期来看,国际汇款对私人投资和经济增长都有显著的正向影响。但在短期内,其影响在统计上不显著,尽管系数是正的。描述性分析还清楚地表明,2014年之后,埃塞俄比亚的汇款流入持续下降,尽管离开该国的移民总数在增加。这可能主要是由于政治不稳定和当前COVID-19大流行的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Effect of International Remittance Inflows on Investment and Economic Growth in Ethiopia
According to the World Bank migration and development report, Ethiopia is among the top remittance-receiving countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. But little attention was given to evaluating the effect of remittance inflows on the Ethiopian economy. Therefore, this paper investigated the relationship between international remittance inflows, private investment, and economic growth in Ethiopia over the year 1991-2020. This study has applied ARDL methods of co-integration to explore the relationship between these economic variables. The result from the econometric analysis indicated that international remittance has a significant positive effect on both private investment and economic growth in the long run. But its effect was found to be statistically insignificant in the short run, though the coefficients are positive. The descriptive analysis also clearly shows that remittance inflow to Ethiopia continuously declined after 2014, though the total number of migrants leaving the country is increasing. This could be mainly because of political instability and the current COVID-19 pandemic effect.
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