Predicting Crew Time Allocations for Lunar Orbital missions based on Historical ISS Operational Activities

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration continues to define candidate architectures for the planned lunar “Gateway”, it will be necessary to have a detailed understanding of how the crew will inhabit, operate, and maintain the spacecraft. The nature of the Gateway vehicle systems configuration and operations will have a direct impact on the scope of work activities required of the crew. Crew work schedules are sensitive to variations in spacecraft architecture, visiting vehicle activities, and logistics operations – particularly within short duration missions as initially planned for the lunar Gateway. These system and operational configurations must be taken into account when planning for crew time availability to conduct science activities on Gateway missions. This paper presents a methodology that is used to predict crew time distributions for lunar Gateway missions, as applied in NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). The process utilized for evaluating crew time distributions is based on the categorization of all crew activities into a standardized ontology. Historical ISS daily crew timeline data from July 20, 2011 (post STS retirement) to present day was captured via the Operational Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) database and characterized according to the standardized ontology. This process enabled correlation and statistical analysis of the ISS data according to common mission parameters such as crew size, ECLSS system design, vehicle traffic operations, and logistics delivery operations. The results of the statistical analysis are a set of crew time distributions for each activity category. These distributions are then utilized within the ECTM to examine crew time allocations based on mission parameter inputs, which serve to characterize the Gateway mission configurations. Results for predicted crew time allocations for representative short duration Gateway missions are presented. These results can be used to evaluate crew schedule availability for science and utilization activities. Variations in expected mission architectures and mission operations are accounted for to correct crew time predictions. The analysis is being leveraged to plan utilization capability objectives that are achievable on the Gateway missions, as well as inform the viability of various mission architecture options.