{"title":"决策风险化解:预防还是干预?","authors":"O. Huber, Dominik Wicki","doi":"10.1080/14664530490896663","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In choices between gambles, utilities and probabilities of consequences determine the decision. If in quasi-realistic risky tasks, decision makers can actively search for information, few search for probability information, and many search for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). RDOs are actions intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative, with the intention to decrease the risk. For the presented experiment the distinction of two types of RDOs is relevant: A Prevention RDO prevents the occurrence of a negative event that causes a negative outcome. An Intervention RDO does not prevent the negative event but interrupts the causal mechanism between negative event and negative outcome. Forty Eight subjects made decisions in three quasi-realistic task. In two of three tasks, this preference can be attributed to the casual structure of RDO.","PeriodicalId":212131,"journal":{"name":"Risk Decision and Policy","volume":"375 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2004-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"8","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk defusing in decision making: prevention or intervention?\",\"authors\":\"O. Huber, Dominik Wicki\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/14664530490896663\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In choices between gambles, utilities and probabilities of consequences determine the decision. If in quasi-realistic risky tasks, decision makers can actively search for information, few search for probability information, and many search for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). RDOs are actions intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative, with the intention to decrease the risk. For the presented experiment the distinction of two types of RDOs is relevant: A Prevention RDO prevents the occurrence of a negative event that causes a negative outcome. An Intervention RDO does not prevent the negative event but interrupts the causal mechanism between negative event and negative outcome. Forty Eight subjects made decisions in three quasi-realistic task. In two of three tasks, this preference can be attributed to the casual structure of RDO.\",\"PeriodicalId\":212131,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Risk Decision and Policy\",\"volume\":\"375 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2004-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"8\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Risk Decision and Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/14664530490896663\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Risk Decision and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/14664530490896663","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk defusing in decision making: prevention or intervention?
In choices between gambles, utilities and probabilities of consequences determine the decision. If in quasi-realistic risky tasks, decision makers can actively search for information, few search for probability information, and many search for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). RDOs are actions intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative, with the intention to decrease the risk. For the presented experiment the distinction of two types of RDOs is relevant: A Prevention RDO prevents the occurrence of a negative event that causes a negative outcome. An Intervention RDO does not prevent the negative event but interrupts the causal mechanism between negative event and negative outcome. Forty Eight subjects made decisions in three quasi-realistic task. In two of three tasks, this preference can be attributed to the casual structure of RDO.