决策风险化解:预防还是干预?

O. Huber, Dominik Wicki
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引用次数: 8

摘要

在赌博的选择中,效用和结果的概率决定了你的决定。在准现实风险任务中,决策者主动搜索信息,较少搜索概率信息,较多搜索风险消除算子(RDOs)。rdo是决策者打算在特定替代方案之外执行的操作,目的是降低风险。对于所提出的实验,两种类型的RDO的区别是相关的:预防RDO防止导致负面结果的负面事件的发生。干预RDO并不能阻止消极事件的发生,而是中断了消极事件与消极结果之间的因果机制。48名受试者在三个准现实任务中做出决定。在三个任务中的两个中,这种偏好可以归因于RDO的随意结构。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Risk defusing in decision making: prevention or intervention?
In choices between gambles, utilities and probabilities of consequences determine the decision. If in quasi-realistic risky tasks, decision makers can actively search for information, few search for probability information, and many search for risk-defusing operators (RDOs). RDOs are actions intended by the decision maker to be performed additionally to a specific alternative, with the intention to decrease the risk. For the presented experiment the distinction of two types of RDOs is relevant: A Prevention RDO prevents the occurrence of a negative event that causes a negative outcome. An Intervention RDO does not prevent the negative event but interrupts the causal mechanism between negative event and negative outcome. Forty Eight subjects made decisions in three quasi-realistic task. In two of three tasks, this preference can be attributed to the casual structure of RDO.
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