重新审视资产崩溃假说

Sebastian Schich
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文的重点是所谓的“资产崩溃假说”,它假定人口发展与资产价格水平之间存在直接联系。特别是,这一假说的支持者认为,当婴儿潮一代开始退休时,他们将成为金融资产的净卖家,为退休消费提供资金。在其他条件不变的情况下,由于后代数量减少,这将给金融资产价格带来下行压力。重新审视这一假设,人口结构与金融资产价格之间的联系得到了一些支持,尽管这种联系可能并不强。存在许多缓解因素,因此“其他事情”将不平等。在此背景下的一个主要问题是,人口发展及其对影响金融资产价格的其他变量的影响在多大程度上已经反映在金融资产价格中,以及金融资产价格的任何额外压力将以多快的速度显现出来。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Revisiting the asset-meltdown hypothesis
The present article focuses on the so-called “asset meltdown hypothesis”, which postulates a direct link between demographic developments and the level of assetprices. In particular, proponents of this hypothesis argue, when baby boomers startentering retirement they will become net sellers of financial assets to finance retirement consumption. As subsequent generations are smaller in numbers, other things equal, this would put downward pressure on financial asset prices. Revisiting this hypothesis, there is some support for a link between demographics and financial asset prices, although the link may not be strong. A number of mitigating factors exist, so that “other things” will not be equal. A major question in this context is to what extent demographic developments and their implications for other variables affecting financial asset prices are already reflected in financial asset prices and how fast any additional pressures on financial asset prices will play themselves out.
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