Probabilistic Aircraft Conflict Analysis for a Vision of the Future Air Traffic Management System

†This paper presents a simplified analysis of probabilistic aircraft conflict management in the context of a future vision for the air traffic management (ATM) system. In such a future vision, the ATM system may include four-dimensional (4D) flight contracts that define conformance limits for aircraft position as a function of time, routine use of probabilistic approaches to pro-actively manage air traffic, and reduced aircraft separation standards. In the future ATM system, probabilities of conflict across multiple potential conflicting aircraft might be used as a means to assess and manage traffic situations with a longer look-ahead than is used in the current ATM system. We begin the analysis of such a future system by analyzing two-aircraft potential-conflict scenarios in the horizontal plane. We show how Monte Carlo simulation techniques can be applied to estimate probabilities of conflict (before deliberate actions are taken to resolve the conflicts) and how these probabilities depend on aircraft separation standards. Results are generated for multiple identical potential conflict pairs, with probabilities estimated as functions of angle of incidence. In order to better understand the implications of the results for future ATM operations, the modeling methodology is applied to find minimum speed changes and lateral deviations needed to achieve specified target probabilities of conflict across multiple independent potential conflict pairs. The analysis shows, in simplified scenarios, how application of appropriate speed changes and position deviations could be used to pro-actively manage air traffic, with probability of conflict serving as a metric. We draw preliminary implications for future ATM operations based on this simplified analysis. We also discuss how this analysis illustrates the role of relatively simple modeling approaches to systems engineering involving complex systems like the future ATM system.