尼日利亚外商直接投资与国际贸易的因果关系

E. O. Ogunleye, Kowe Babatunde Oluwafisayo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在促进真正和可持续发展方面具有重要作用。尼日利亚政府试图利用外国直接投资和国际贸易带来的好处,采取了几种策略,以促进外国直接投资流入,同时促进国际贸易。这些策略包括监管措施和激励政策,制定投资法,取消不利于外国直接投资和对外贸易的法律,国有企业向公有企业转移等(Shiro, 2009)。摘要:国际贸易和外商直接投资在各国经济发展中起着重要的作用,尤其是在世界上发展中国家,尼日利亚就是其中之一。对于FDI和对外贸易日益增长的趋势和意义来说,更重要的是这两个经济主体的可替代性和/或互补性的概念,因此需要使用1970年至2019年的数据来研究它们之间的联系。本研究采用Johansen协整检验来证实变量之间都存在长期关系,同时采用时域和频域两种不同的方法来揭示变量之间的因果关系方向。时域采用VECM格兰杰因果检验,频域采用Breitung-Candelon因果检验。Johansen协整检验结果显示,外商直接投资与出口之间存在长期正相关关系,外商直接投资与进口之间存在长期负相关关系。进一步发现FDI与进口的长期因果关系是单向的,从FDI到进口的长期因果关系是双向的。导出和导入之间也存在从导出到导入的单向因果关系。本研究得出结论,尼日利亚的外国直接投资是有利的,外国直接投资与出口之间的长期积极关系和外国直接投资与进口之间的长期消极关系,因此建议政府应该提出有助于外国直接投资流入经济的政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Causal Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade in Nigeria
has a major role in fostering real and sustainable development. In an attempt to tap into the benefits accruing from both Foreign Direct Investment and International Trade by the Nigeria government, several strategies have been employed in order to promote FDI inflow and at the same time boost International Trade. Such strategies include regulatory measures and incentive policies, enactment of investment laws, removal of laws that are inimical to foreign direct investment and foreign trade, transfer of state owned enterprises to public own enterprises etc (Shiro, 2009). Abstract: International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment plays significant role in nation’s economic development, especially the developing countries of the world among which we have Nigeria economy. More important to the increasing trend and significance of FDI and Foreign Trade are the concept of substitutability and/or complementarities of these two economic agents and thus the need to examine the nexus between them using the data from 1970 and 2019. The study adopted Johansen co-integration test to confirm the existence of both long-run relationship among the variables while two different approaches of time and frequency domains were employed to uncover the direction of causality between the variables. The time domain approach used was VECM granger causality test while the frequency domain approach used was Breitung-Candelon causality test. The Johansen co-integration test outcome reveals the existence of positive long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and export and a negative long-run relationship between foreign direct investment and import. Finding further reveals unidirectional causality between FDI and import in the long run running from FDI to import, but there is bi-directional causality between FDI and export in the long-run. Also a unidirectional causality exists between Export and Import running from Export to import. This study concluded that FDI in Nigeria is favourable, with the positive long run relationship between FDI and export and negative long run relationship between FDI and import, and therefore suggest that the Government should come up with policies that will help the inflow of FDI into the economy.
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