印尼银行业是否更能抵御COVID-19大流行?

Radia Purbayati, Agil Krisna Rivanda, Kurnia Fajar Afgani, Rosma Pakpahan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在检验银行业在新冠肺炎疫情下的抵御能力。该研究的重点是2017年1月至2021年4月期间印度尼西亚的商业银行。本研究采用描述性分析方法,对印尼银行业进行了变量测试,包括ROA、CAR、LDR、NPL、NIM和BOPO,使用VAR/VECM分析。结果表明,该分析采用了二阶滞后最优的VECM模型。在短期和长期显著影响银行绩效的变量是CAR、LDR、NPL、NIM、BOPO和ROA,在第一滞后,但在第二滞后,LDR变量在短期内对ROA没有显著影响。由CAR、LDR、NPL、NIM、BOPO和ROA本身引起的冲击由ROA通过脉冲响应函数响应,并将在5个月至30个月的恢复期内得到纠正,以缓解向早期平衡(Covid-19大流行前的状况)的过渡。尽管由于2019冠状病毒病大流行,银行业正在收缩,效率低下,但由于OJK实施了各种刺激政策,以减轻2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的银行风险,银行业的抗风险能力仍然保持在可控范围内。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
ARE BANKING INDUSTRY MORE RESILIENT AGAINST THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN INDONESIA?
This research aims to examine the resilience of the banking industry due to Covid-19. The study focuses on Commercial Banks in Indonesia along January 2017 to April 2021. The study uses a descriptive analysis method of the banking industry in Indonesia with the variables tested including ROA, CAR, LDR, NPL, NIM and BOPO using VAR/VECM analysis. The results show that VECM modelling at the 2nd lag optimum is used at this analysis. Variables that significantly affect banking performance in the short and long run are CAR, LDR, NPL, NIM, BOPO and ROA at 1st lag, but at 2nd lag the LDR variable has no significant effect on ROA in the short run. The shock caused by the variables CAR, LDR, NPL, NIM, BOPO and ROA itself is responded by ROA through the Impulse Response Function and will be corrected to ease moving towards early equilibrium (conditions before the Covid-19 pandemic) within a period of time recovery between 5 months to 30 months. Even though the banking industry is contracting and inefficiency has occurred due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the resilience of the banking industry is still maintained and under control due to the implementation of various stimulus policies issued by the OJK to mitigate banking risks during the Covid-19 pandemic which has the potential issues to financial distress.
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