韩国自由贸易政策十年评价

Young gui Kim
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们根据最近双边自由贸易协定的结果,从实现政策目标的角度来分析韩国的自由贸易协定政策。以往的许多研究主要关注双边自由贸易协定对贸易的影响,而本研究从增长和福利的角度分析了自由贸易协定对整体经济的影响,因为双边贸易的变化可能以多种方式影响全球贸易和整体经济。为了分析自由贸易协定的整体效果,我们采用了可计算一般均衡(CGE)方法。利用CGE模型,可以考虑经济主体和产业之间复杂的相互作用,计算自由贸易协定的宏观经济影响。欧盟的增长效果最高,其次是0.9%,东盟和智利分别增长0.43%和0.11%。此外,通过比较2013年FTA对总经济增长的总体增长效应,在韩国经济增长总量的3%中,FTA的增长影响占1.19%。这意味着,韩国作为世界上最开放的经济体之一,在全球金融危机导致贸易崩溃的情况下,可以通过韩国-东盟自由贸易协定(FTA)等自由贸易协定(FTA)保持正增长。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluation of a Decade of Korea's FTA Policy
We analyze Korea’s FTA policy based on the outcomes of recent bilateral FTAs, in terms of achieving policy objectives. While many previous studies mainly focused on trade impacts under bilateral FTAs, this study analyzes the overall economic impact of FTAs in terms of growth and welfare, as changes in bilateral trade may affect global trade and the general economy in a variety of ways. In order to analyze the overall effect of FTAs, we adopt the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach. With a CGE model, the macro economic impacts of FTAs can be calculated taking into account the complicated interactions among economic agents and industries. The growth effect in the EU shows the high-est results, followed by 0.9% growth and an additional 0.43% and 0.11%, in the ASEAN and Chile respectively. In addition, by com-paring the overall growth effect of FTA on total economic growth in 2013, the growth impact of FTAs accounted for 1.19% among 3% of total economic growth in Korea. This implies that Korea, as one of the most open economies in the world, could sustain positive growth rates due to FTAs such as the Korea-ASEAN FTA, despite the trade collapse during the global financial crisis.
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