基于BP神经网络的经济数据分析与智能预测研究

Zheng Huang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

预测是决策的前提,只有在正确预测的基础上才能做出科学的决策。宏观经济预测与决策是管理科学领域的一个重要研究方向,是区域和国家经济发展规划与决策中必须解决的重要问题。利用BP神经网络的自学习、自适应和非线性特性,可以实现经济数据分析和智能预测。通过建立经济系统的评价指标体系,对经济变量的数据进行归一化处理,然后将数据送到BPNN进行训练,得到相应的参数后再进行预测。本文将PCA(主成分分析)算法与BPNN算法相结合,充分利用PCA算法的降维优势和神经网络的非线性表达优势,建立PCA-BPNN预测模型,并将该算法应用于社会固定资产投资数据的分析。通过与线性预测方法的比较,发现PCA-BPNN预测算法具有更好的效果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on Economic Data Analysis and Intelligent Prediction Based on BP Neural Network
Prediction is the premise of decision-making, and scientific decision-making can only be made on the basis of correct prediction. Macroeconomic forecasting and decision-making is an important research direction in the field of management science, and an important problem that must be solved in regional and national economic development planning and decision-making. By using the self-learning, self-adapting and nonlinear characteristics of BPNN (BP neural network), economic data analysis and intelligent prediction can be realized. By establishing the evaluation index system of economic system, the data of economic variables are normalized, and then sent to BPNN for training to get the corresponding parameters before prediction. In this paper, PCA (principal component analysis) algorithm and BPNN algorithm are combined, and the PCA algorithm's advantage of dimension reduction and neural network's advantage of nonlinear expression are fully utilized, and the PCA-BPNN prediction model is established, and the algorithm is applied to the analysis of social fixed assets investment data. Compared with the linear prediction method, it is found that PCA-BPNN prediction algorithm has better effect.
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