将BrowserQuest转变为疾病传播建模的流行病学工具

Curtis L Gittens, Jemar Greaves
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引用次数: 3

摘要

疾病如何在人群中传播及其生殖力是流行病学的基本目的。历史上,人类的行为与传染病的传播有着错综复杂的联系。研究流行病背景下人类行为的模型通常侧重于判断各种制度性公共卫生措施(如关闭学校)的有效性,而不是个人本身如何应对疫情。使用包含人类行为的模拟或虚拟环境有望成为一种有用的建模工具。发生在大型多人在线角色扮演游戏(MMORPG)《魔兽世界》(World of Warcraft)中的“腐败之血”事件,导致了游戏世界中第一次大规模、计划外的虚拟流行病。这一事件强调了mmorpg可以用于研究流行病学事件的事实。使用BrowserQuest,我们设计了一个疾病管理和传播系统(DiMANDS),该系统监测互动并触发感染事件——使用非玩家角色(npc)作为人类代理——在虚拟人群中传播疾病。记录NPC人群的感染率并生成易感-感染-恢复(SIR)图。我们的结果表明,我们的SIR图与其他模拟技术相似,并进一步加强了使用mmorpg作为流行病学模拟工具的可能性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Transforming BrowserQuest into an epidemiological tool for modelling disease dissemination
How diseases spread and their virility in human populations is the fundamental purpose of epidemiology. Historically, human behavior has been intricately linked with the spread of infectious diseases. Models to study human behavior in the context of epidemics usually concentrate on judging the effectiveness of various institutionally enforced public health measures such as school closures, not how the individuals themselves respond to the outbreak. Using a simulated or virtual environment that incorporates human behavior holds promise as a useful modelling tool. The “corrupted blood” incident that occurred in the Massive Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game (MMORPG) World of Warcraft led to the first large-scale, unplanned virtual epidemic in a game world. This event underscored the fact that MMORPGs can be used to study epidemiological events. Using BrowserQuest, we designed a disease management and dissemination system (DiMANDS) that monitors interactions and triggers infection events - using nonplayer characters (NPCs) as a human proxies - to spread a disease among a virtual population. The rate of infection in the NPC population was logged and a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) graph was generated. Our results showed that our SIR graph is similar to other simulation techniques, and further strengthens the possibility of using MMORPGs as an epidemiological simulation tool.
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