2050年的古科学:一些思考

A. Sahni
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引用次数: 0

摘要

写未来场景的一个好处是,上了年纪的作者很少有机会受到批评。出生于印度的作家乔治·奥威尔很清楚这个事实,他在1949年夏天出版了他著名的小说《1984年的生活与时代》。他把二战后的世界笼罩在阴谋和阴谋的阴云之上,为1984年的生活描绘了一幅相当黑暗、阴郁的画面。《1984》来去匆匆,并不像乔治·奥威尔想象的那么多事,他的大部分预言都没有引起人们的注意。受此鼓舞,我大胆地认为2050年将是一个非常拥挤的星球(拥有超过90亿居民)争夺资源,意识到需要为子孙后代保护和保护地球,这些情绪在1950年我们在两次世界大战后重建时并不是优先考虑的。支配所有活动的因素是人类活动对碳排放量的限制。2015年的《巴黎协定》指出,从工业革命开始,地球的温度上升将限制在20摄氏度以下。减少对化石燃料的依赖;可再生能源崛起,低碳经济初具规模。到2050年,我们将拥有一个非常电气化的世界,更多的电动汽车取代内燃机,氢气取代天然气。这些问题将主导我们将如何以及在什么主题上进行研究,以及需要解决哪些挑战。这些变化将有助于人类实现可持续发展,减轻气候危害,提高地球上的生活质量。但这足以扭转地球的进程吗?
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Palaeosciences in 2050: Some Thoughts
One of the advantages of writing about futuristic scenarios, is that an elderly author has little chance of facing criticism. The Indian born author, George Orwell knew this fact well, when he published his famous novel of life and times 1984 in the summer of 1949. He painted a rather dark, sombre picture of life in 1984 keeping in mind the dark clouds of intrigue and conspiracy that hung over the post WWII world at the time. 1984 came and went and was not as eventful as George Orwell had imagined and most of his predictions went unnoticed. Encouraged by this, I venture to see 2050 as a very crowded planet (with well over 9 billion inhabitants) competing for resources, conscious of the need to preserve and conserve the earth for future generations, sentiments that were not a priority in 1950 when we were rebuilding after 2 world wars. The factor that would dominate all activity is the restriction of the amount of carbon emissions by human actions. The Paris agreement of 2015 points to limiting temperature increase on our planet to below 2o C from start of industrial revolution. Reliance on fossil fuels will be reduced; rise of renewable energy and lower carbon economy will take shape. By 2050, we will have a very electrified world with more electric vehicles replacing internal combustion engines and hydrogen replacing natural gas. These issues will dominate on how and on what topics we will do our research and what challenges need to be tackled. The changes will help mankind towards sustainability, alleviating climate hazards and improving quality of life on our planet. But will that be enough to reverse the course of the planet? 
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