基于广义学习系统的船舶油耗预测

Xinyu Li, Yongjie Zhu, Y. Zuo, Tie-shan Li, C. L. P. Chen
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引用次数: 6

摘要

随着国际海事组织对绿色航运的日益重视,以及对航运企业燃料监管和运营成本的限制越来越严格,无论从节能环保还是运营经济的角度来看,未来船舶都应该以更低的油耗和更少的排放投入实际运营。目前,海事大数据的研究和应用主要集中在航次和货物领域。然而,对船舶能量管理的研究却很少。本文提出了一种基于广义学习系统(BLS)的燃料消耗预测模型,并以丹麦的Smyril号滚装船为例进行了研究。利用实测运行数据,运用数据分析和机器学习技术,建立了船舶燃油消耗预测模型。最后,通过与现有油耗预测方法的比较,证明了该方法的预测效果更好。BLS的快速性可用于燃料消耗的实时预测。当船舶出现一些机械故障,可能导致船舶燃油消耗异常时,它可以帮助工程师和甲板人员快速响应,及时解决问题。为导航优化提供决策依据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prediction of Ship Fuel Consumption Based on Broad Learning System
With the increasing attention of IMO to green shipping, and the increasingly strict restrictions on fuel regulatory and operating costs of shipping enterprises, no matter from the perspective of energy conservation and environmental protection or operating economy, ships should be put into actual operations in the future with lower fuel consumption and less emissions. At present, the researches and applications of maritime big data are mostly concentrated in the field of shipping schedules and cargoes. However, there are few studies focusing on the ship energy management. This paper proposes a fuel consumption prediction model based on the Broad Learning System (BLS) and the Danish RO-RO ship Ms Smyril is taken as the case ship. With the measured operation data, the fuel consumption prediction model of the ship is constructed by using data analysis and machine learning. Finally, compared with the existing fuel consumption prediction methods, it is proved that the prediction effects of this method are better. The rapidity of BLS can be used for real-time prediction of fuel consumption. When there are some mechanical failures of the ship which may cause the abnormal fuel consumption of the ship, it can help the engineers and the deck officers response quickly and address problems in time. It can also provide decision-making basis for navigation optimization.
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