基于消防部门战备状态评估的分级控制系统响应效率模型

N. Topolsky, S. Butuzov, V. Vilisov, V. Semikov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

介绍。组成国家统一应急预防和清算系统(USSEPL)的各级子系统的准备就绪是决定其有效性的最重要特征之一。为了支持上层管理阶层的决策,重要的是要有一组模型,以充分表示关键响应效率指标与系统低层(消防和救援部门)的特定指标之间的依赖关系。在大多数情况下,构建这种模型的监管方法(分析人员根据这种方法设置模型的结构和参数),由于它们在动态变化的外部条件和现代设备的技术能力的背景下具有非适应性,结果证明是无效的。使用一种基于解决反问题的方法,该方法关闭反馈回路并提供参数和模型结构的自适应调整,确保模型在不断变化的条件下当前的充分性。该研究的相关性在于开发了一种构建多项式模型的技术,该模型允许基于使用内部控制的专家评估技术(测试)获得的较低级别子系统的准备情况估计指标来评估USSEPL响应有效性。目标和目的。该工作的目的是建立和测试用于开发分析多项式模型的技术,该模型允许根据低级子系统(消防和救援部门)的准备情况指标充分评估USSEPL响应的性能指标。根据这一目标,还设定了选择模型类型的任务和获得必要初始数据的方法。本研究采用层次系统分析、数理统计、仿真建模和专家评价等方法。该研究得到了国内外出版物资料的支持。结果和讨论。本文提出的基于子系统准备状态的USSEPL运行效率模型构建方法,可作为构建考虑子系统其他指标的模型的基础。解决了USSEPL响应效率与低级准备度指标之间的依赖关系的多项式模型的构建问题,为支持决策系统的其他类似模型的建立奠定了基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A model of response efficiency in the hierarchical control system based on the assessment of readiness of fire departments
Introduction. The readiness of all levels of subsystems that comprise the Unified State System for Emergency Prevention and Liquidation (USSEPL) is one of the most important characteristics that determine its effectiveness. To support decision-making at the upper levels of the management hierarchy, it is important to have a set of models that adequately represent the dependence between key response efficiency indicators and particular indicators of lower levels of the system (fire and rescue departments). In most cases, a regulatory approach to the construction of such models, by virtue of which analysts set their structure and parameters, turns out to be unproductive due to their non-adaptive nature in the context of dynamically changing external conditions and technological capabilities of modern devices. The use of an approach based on solving inverse problems that close the feedback loop and provide for an adaptive adjustment of parameters and the structure of models, ensures the current adequacy of models amid changing conditions.The relevance of the study lies in the development of a technology for constructing polynomial models that allow to assess the USSEPL response effectiveness based on estimated indicators of readiness of subsystems at lower levels obtained using expert evaluation techniques (testing) by means of internal control.Goals and objectives. The aim of the work is to build and test the technology for developing analytical polynomial models that allow to adequately assess performance indicators of the USSEPL response depending on the readiness indicators of lower-level subsystems (fire and rescue departments). In compliance with this goal, the tasks of choosing the type of model and methods of obtaining the necessary initial data are also set.Methods. The study uses methods of analysis of hierarchically organized systems, mathematical statistics, simulation modelling, and methods of expert evaluation. The research is backed by materials from domestic and foreign publications.Results and discussion. The proposed method of constructing an efficiency model of the USSEPL operation, relying on the readiness of subsystems, serves as the basis for constructing models that can take into account other indicators of subsystems.Conclusions. The solution to the problem of constructing a polynomial model, that features dependence between the USSEPL response efficiency and lower-level readiness indicators, serves as the basis for other similar models that will support decision making systems.
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